{"id":2522,"date":"2012-10-04T05:05:40","date_gmt":"2012-10-04T05:05:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/praag.org\/?p=2522"},"modified":"2012-10-04T05:05:40","modified_gmt":"2012-10-04T05:05:40","slug":"zulu-power-for-zuma","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/praag.org\/?p=2522","title":{"rendered":"Zulu power for Zuma"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>
Jacob Zuma in Zulu dress<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Shifts in ANC membership within South Africa’s provinces have given President Jacob Zuma a fighting chance of holding on to the party leadership and the presidency.<\/p>\n

The number of ANC members in the southeastern province of KwaZulu-Natal might seem like a detail only of interest to South African political scientists.<\/p>\n

In fact, the number may well be decisive in helping Zuma remain in charge of Africa’s most powerful nation and her largest economy.<\/p>\n

This December 4,500 ANC delegates will gather to elect a party leader for the next five years.<\/p>\n

He or she will almost certainly become the next president of the country, thanks to the party’s electoral predominance.<\/p>\n

Five years after ousting president Thabo Mbeki in an act of political regicide at the last ANC electoral conference, Zuma could face the same fate in December.<\/p>\n

Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe is widely tipped as one possible challenger. He could announce his candidacy as soon as this week.<\/p>\n

According to a recent TNS poll Motlanthe has a 51 percent approval rating to Zuma’s 48 percent.<\/p>\n

But as the race gets underway, the ANC announced Wednesday that a surprising 36-percent rise in membership in KwaZulu-Natal means at least 974 of the 4,500 conference delegates will come from Zuma’s home province.<\/p>\n

It is by far the biggest representation of any province.<\/p>\n

For an incumbent whose administration has been marred by rolling strikes, high unemployment and social unrest, that is nothing short of a godsend.<\/p>\n

In the race for 2,250-plus ANC delegates, every vote will count, according to Mari Harris, managing executive at local pollsters Ipsos Markinor.<\/p>\n

A complex mix of loyalty, personal advancement and ideology, as well as regional and tribal politics, will all play a role in corralling delegates.<\/p>\n

Harris predicts that the largely rural Eastern Cape, home to Nelson Mandela and long the heartland of the ANC, will back Motlanthe.<\/p>\n

Although the dominant tribe in the Eastern Cape is Xhosa, members are more likely to go for Tswana-speaking Motlanthe, than Zuma, who is a Zulu.<\/p>\n

“The Xhosa don’t have a candidate,” said Harris.<\/p>\n

She also predicts that Gauteng — which includes Johannesburg and the capital Pretoria — will favour Motlanthe.<\/p>\n

Indeed, ANC rising star, Gauteng province chairman and culture minister Paul Mashatile has already said the “ANC must change this year,” while calling for a “renewal of leadership.”<\/p>\n

Together, Gauteng and the Eastern Cape account for 1,176 delegates. By striking the right pacts Motlanthe could significantly increase that total.<\/p>\n

His recent courting of ousted party firebrand Julius Malema appeared to have paid off Wednesday when the ANC’s Youth League, which still backs Malema, called for a “radical and urgent change” within the party and backed Motlanthe as leader.<\/p>\n

With only 45 delegates, the Youth League is unlikely to tip the balance of the leadership contest — but it could prove a thorn in Zuma’s side.<\/p>\n

Malema could help deliver some or all of the 574 delegates in his home province of Limpopo.<\/p>\n

It is against this backdrop then that KwaZulu-Natal’s increase from 608 votes in 2007 to 974 today may prove crucial for Zuma.<\/p>\n

“At this stage I think he will still carry the vote, with a small majority,” said Harris. “But everything can change.” – Sapa<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Shifts in ANC membership within South Africa’s provinces have given President Jacob Zuma a fighting chance of holding on to the party leadership and the presidency. The number of ANC members in the southeastern province of KwaZulu-Natal might seem like a detail only of interest to South African political scientists. In fact, the number may … Continue reading “Zulu power for Zuma”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2523,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,4],"tags":[64,166,832,344,1586,12250,1585],"class_list":["post-2522","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-south-africa","tag-anc","tag-jacob-zuma","tag-kwazulu-natal","tag-motlanthe","tag-presidency","tag-south-africa","tag-zulu"],"cc_featured_image_caption":{"caption_text":false,"source_text":false,"source_url":false},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/praag.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/Jacobu_zuma_traditional.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/praag.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2522","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/praag.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/praag.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/praag.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/praag.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2522"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/praag.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2522\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2525,"href":"https:\/\/praag.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2522\/revisions\/2525"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/praag.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2523"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/praag.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2522"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/praag.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2522"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/praag.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2522"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}