{"id":7853,"date":"2013-07-26T09:34:26","date_gmt":"2013-07-26T09:34:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/praag.org\/?p=7853"},"modified":"2013-07-26T09:34:26","modified_gmt":"2013-07-26T09:34:26","slug":"anc-is-coming-unstuck","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/praag.org\/?p=7853","title":{"rendered":"‘ANC is coming unstuck’"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Nic<\/a>
Nic Boraine<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

A poor showing by the ruling party at next year’s general election will likely cost President Jacob Zuma his job, political analyst Nic Borain said on Thursday.<\/p>\n

Speaking at a Cape Town Press Club lunch, he said the signs were that “the ANC’s glue is coming unstuck” after the Marikana shootings last year.<\/p>\n

“They [the ANC] are taking this 2014 election extremely seriously. They’re going to fight tooth and nail to [win it].<\/p>\n

“They know that if they drop below 60%, they’re in trouble. Jacob Zuma will be in trouble… “<\/p>\n

Responding to questions, Borain – a local independent analyst, who spoke on “the impact of the current mining troubles” in South Africa – suggested the rise of the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (Amcu) was a turning point for ANC supporters.<\/p>\n

Support for it had been triggered by unhappiness with the ANC-aligned National Union of Mineworkers (NUM).<\/p>\n

“There was a huge defection [from] the ANC support base in the platinum sector.”<\/p>\n

This had later spread to the gold sector, where it had risen – according to some sources – to 30%.<\/p>\n

“Jacob Zuma is now losing support among urban black people,” Borain said.<\/p>\n

Prediction<\/p>\n

Asked to predict the likely showing of the ANC at next year’s elections, he said a “worst-case scenario” was the ANC retained 65% of the vote.<\/p>\n

He suggested a more-likely “best scenario” would see the ANC get 59% of the vote. This, he said, would lead to ANC leaders negotiating a “controlled exit” for Zuma, who would want to be assured he could leave with his wealth intact and not facing corruption charges.<\/p>\n

“The ANC is not going to accept this kind of loss.”<\/p>\n

Borain said a third scenario, involving the ANC garnering only 51% of the vote, was “very scary”.<\/p>\n

“If that happens, all bets are off.”<\/p>\n

Pushed to suggest how political parties might fare in the coming election, he estimated the ANC would take 58%, the DA 26%, a figure he later revised to 30%, and newly-formed Agang SA about 2%.<\/p>\n

On the DA, Borain said the main opposition party would find it “difficult to overcome barriers to its growth”.<\/p>\n

On the future prospects of Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) – whose leadership he described as “the clowns and fools of our politics” – Borain said they could take up to 5% of the vote.<\/p>\n

“But I can’t see them getting out to vote,” he added.\u00a0– Sapa<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A poor showing by the ruling party at next year’s general election will likely cost President Jacob Zuma his job, political analyst Nic Borain said on Thursday. Speaking at a Cape Town Press Club lunch, he said the signs were that “the ANC’s glue is coming unstuck” after the Marikana shootings last year. “They [the … Continue reading “‘ANC is coming unstuck’”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7854,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,4],"tags":[770,64,4329,166,794,4330,4328,771,4331],"class_list":["post-7853","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-south-africa","tag-amcu","tag-anc","tag-elections-2014","tag-jacob-zuma","tag-marikana","tag-mining-troubles","tag-nic-boraine","tag-num","tag-urban-blacks"],"cc_featured_image_caption":{"caption_text":false,"source_text":false,"source_url":false},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/praag.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/nicboraine.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/praag.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7853","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/praag.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/praag.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/praag.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/praag.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7853"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/praag.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7853\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7856,"href":"https:\/\/praag.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7853\/revisions\/7856"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/praag.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7854"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/praag.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7853"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/praag.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7853"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/praag.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7853"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}