Africa’s population is set to double to more than 2.4 billion over the next few decades due to improved health care and medicines, a new study found.
Sub-Saharan Africa – the world’s poorest region – will record the largest amount of population growth of any area in the world between now and 2050, according to the Population Reference Bureau (PRB).
But the massive baby boom could put huge strain on resources and fledgling economies in some of the world’s most deprived areas, the PRB warned.
And the projected growth in population assumes that family planning will become more widespread in regions where, for religious or cultural reasons, contraception has not been widely adopted.
The 10 countries worldwide with the highest fertility are all in sub-Saharan Africa.
Today, women in sub-Saharan Africa average 5.2 children, a rate that rises as high as 7.6 in Niger.
And improved access to medicine and health care mean millions more of these children will now survive to adulthood.
Wendy Baldwin, the organisation’s president and CEO, said: “Nearly all of that growth will be in the 51 countries of sub-Saharan Africa, the region’s poorest.
“Rapid population growth makes it difficult for economies to create enough jobs to lift large numbers of people out of poverty.”
In addition to high birth rates, the region’s population is also quite young, with 43 percent of the population below age 15.
Carl Haub, senior demographer and co-author of the data sheet, said: “Given its youthful population, future population growth in Africa will depend upon the degree to which the parents of tomorrow use family planning.
“The projections that we cite assume that family planning will become more widespread. If not, Africa’s population will grow more rapidly, further constraining efforts to address poverty, create jobs, and protect the environment.”
This year’s Data Sheet provides detailed information on 20 population, health, and environment indicators for more than 200 countries, and has a special focus on wealth and income inequality.
Developing countries tend to have wide income gaps between rich and poor that are associated with dramatic differences in fertility and health.
In Uganda, women from the poorest fifth of families have twice as many children as those from the wealthiest fifth.
And children from the poorest families are much more likely to die before turning 5 than their counterparts in the wealthiest families.
PRB’s 2013 World Population Data Sheet shows the stark contrasts between rich and poor countries, illustrated by comparing Niger and the Netherlands.
The demographic divide: Niger and Netherlands
Niger Netherlands
Population (2013): 16.9 million 16.8 million
Projected Population (2050): 65.8 million 17.9 million
2050 Projected Population as a Multiple of 2013: 3.9 1.1
Lifetime Births per Woman: 7.6 1.7
Annual Births: 845,000 176,000
Annual Deaths: 195,000 141,000
% of Population Below Age 15: 50% 17%
% of Population Ages 65+ (2013): 3% 16%
% of Population Ages 65+ (projected 2050): 3% 27%
Life Expectancy at Birth (all): 57 years 81 years
Infant Mortality Rate (per 1,000 live births): 51 3.7
Annual Number of Infant Deaths: 43,000 650
Even though the two countries have almost the same population size today, Niger is projected to nearly quadruple its population from about 17 million today to 66 million in 2050. The Netherlands’ population will likely grow very slowly from 17 million to 18 million over that same time.
At the root of this “demographic divide” are differences in the average number of births per woman and the share of the population in their childbearing years.
Niger’s total fertility rate of 7.6 lifetime births per woman is more than four times the Netherlands’ rate of 1.7 per woman.
One-half of Niger’s population is younger than age 15, compared with 17 percent of the Netherlands’ population. – Daily Mail
