Tag: oil wealth

Good luck to Nigeria’s president at the polls

Less than two weeks from national polls, Nigeria’s ruling party is facing unprecedented shifts in the politics of religion that could spell trouble for the incumbent, President Goodluck Jonathan.

While he may still be the favourite on February 14, experts said some factors could remove his Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) from power for the first time since the end of military rule in 1999.

Opposition leader Muhammadu Buhari, a northern Muslim, has gained surprising traction in the mostly Christian south, despite sustained PDP efforts to paint him as a religious extremist.

Jonathan has been heavily criticised for his apparent failure to reduce graft in Africa’s most populous country and top economy, where billions of dollars in public money have been stolen, especially in the oil sector.

Boko Haram’s brutal uprising has also worsened each year under Jonathan’s watch, with more than 13,000 people killed since 2009.

For Dapo Thomas, political scientist at Lagos State University, the emphasis on a candidate’s religion and tribe has “driven merit to the backseat”.

Jonathan beat Buhari by roughly 10 million votes in 2011, winning roughly eight million in the north and the religiously divided central states.

If Jonathan’s support in the north collapses and Buhari makes inroads in the south, analysts said the president could lose.

Buhari is helped by the fact that he is leading a united opposition, unlike in 2011 when rival candidates peeled off more than three million votes.

Source: AFP

UK mismanaged Scotland’s oil wealth

A leading oil economist has predicted a potential North Sea bonus of 99 new discoveries in the next 30 years.

Alex Kemp, from the University of Aberdeen, Scotland, has used detailed financial modelling to set out “commercially viable” projects for the industry following the Wood Review.

The sector has been one of the key battlegrounds in the independence debate, with varying projections on just how many recoverable barrels remain.

In the new academic paper, Prof Kemp argues the 99 finds could be made by 2045, and also outlines an additional 58 which he says will be “uneconomic” by 2050 but could become viable as a result of technological improvements.

He further points out 147 already discovered fields which are not yet at the detailed planning stage and 25 fields currently “being assessed” for development.

Prof Kemp, who factored in expected government tax relief for new exploration, said oil prices are likely to be “much higher” by 2050.

The latest predictions were welcomed by Energy Minister Fergus Ewing, who said the figures proved the North Sea has a “bright future”.

He said: “Whilst the No campaign like to talk down Scotland’s oil wealth – despite enjoying the riches that flow from it into the London Treasury – this expert opinion makes clear that Scotland’s oil and gas story is far from over.

“Under the UK’s poor stewardship of North Sea oil and gas we have seen frequent changes to the tax regime, a lack of focus on value creation and mismanagement of revenues.

“These are all mistakes which cannot be allowed to continue for the decades of oil and gas recovery which remain ahead.”

In the paper, Prof Kemp said: “New commercially viable developments triggered over the period to 2050 include not only 25 fields currently being assessed for development, but 147 discovered fields not yet at the detailed planning stage, and 99 further discoveries resulting from new exploration over the period to 2045.

“At the year 2050 in our model there are also 58 new discoveries made between 2014 and 2045 which contain well over 1 billion boe (barrels of oil equivalent) but are uneconomic. Again, it can be expected that, with higher oil prices, some will become economic.

“But, even the most bearish commentators on the oil market would agree that by 2050 real oil prices are likely to be much higher, and thus more developments should be triggered by that time.”

Source: energyvoice.com