Is World War III coming?

Nouriel Roubini, Kyle Bass, Hugo Salinas Price, Charles Nenner, James Dines, Jim Rogers, David Stockman, Marc Faber, Jim Rickards, Paul Craig Roberts, Martin Armstrong, Larry Edelson, Gerald Celente and others warn of wider war

Paul Craig Roberts – former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under President Reagan, former editor of the Wall Street Journal, listed by Who’s Who in America as one of the 1,000 most influential political thinkers in the world, PhD economist – wrote an article yesterday about the build up of hostilities between the U.S. and Russia titled, simply: “War Is Coming”. In the article, Roberts notes:

As reported by Tyler Durden of Zero Hedge, the Russian response to the extra-legal ruling of a corrupt court in the Netherlands, which had no jurisdiction over the case on which it ruled, awarding $50 billion dollars from the Russian government to shareholders of Yukos, a corrupt entity that was looting Russia and evading taxes, is telling. Asked what Russia would do about the ruling, an advisor to President Putin replied, “There is a war coming in Europe.” Do you really think this ruling matters?”

In January, well-known economist Nouriel Roubini tweeted from the gathering of the rich and powerful at the World Economic Forum in Davos:

Many speakers compare 2014 to 1914 when WWI broke out & no one expected it. A black swan in the form of a war between China & Japan?

And:

Both Abe and an influential Chinese analyst don’t rule out a military confrontation between China and Japan. Memories of 1914?

Billionaire hedge fund manager Kyle Bass writes:

Trillions of dollars of debts will be restructured and millions of financially prudent savers will lose large percentages of their real purchasing power at exactly the wrong time in their lives. Again, the world will not end, but the social fabric of the profligate nations will be stretched and in some cases torn. Sadly, looking back through economic history, all too often war is the manifestation of simple economic entropy played to its logical conclusion. We believe that war is an inevitable consequence of the current global economic situation.

Reagan’s head of the Office of Management and Budget – David Stockman – is posting pieces warning of the dispute between the U.S. and Russia leading to World War 3.

Investment adviser Larry Edelson wrote an email to subscribers entitled “What the “Cycles of War” are saying for 2013″, which states:

Since the 1980s, I’ve been studying the so-called “cycles of war” — the natural rhythms that predispose societies to descend into chaos, into hatred, into civil and even international war.

I’m certainly not the first person to examine these very distinctive patterns in history. There have been many before me, notably, Raymond Wheeler, who published the most authoritative chronicle of war ever, covering a period of 2,600 years of data.

However, there are very few people who are willing to even discuss the issue right now. And based on what I’m seeing, the implications could be absolutely huge ….

Former Goldman Sachs technical analyst Charles Nenner – who has made some big accurate calls, and counts major hedge funds, banks, brokerage houses, and high net worth individuals as clients – says there will be “a major war”, which will drive the Dow to 5,000.

Veteran investor adviser James Dines forecast a war is epochal as World Wars I and II, starting in the Middle East.

Economist and investment manager Marc Faber says that the American government will start new wars in response to the economic crisis:

“The next thing the government will do to distract the attention of the people on bad economic conditions is they’ll start a war somewhere.”

Martin Armstrong – who has managed multi-billion dollar sovereign investment funds – wrote in August:

Our greatest problem is the bureaucracy wants a war. This will distract everyone from the NSA and justify what they have been doing. They need a distraction for the economic decline that is coming.

Source: Washington’s Blog

Wheels reveal foreign policy choices

Joseph Stalin preferred the American Packard Twelve

The cars chosen by presidents, kings, prime ministers and other leaders of the world in the past and today, also reveal their tastes in foreign affairs.

The car fleet of the last Emperor of Russia Nicholas II in 1913 consisted of 29 vehicles and in 1917 there were 46. The Emperor’s main car was a French Delaunay-Belleville. It all ended badly for the ruler as well as the manufacturer, sadly.

When Vladimir Lenin became the leader of the Soviet Russia, strangely, he displayed a love of Western wheels, but apparently not ideology. In the 1920’s Lenin used a Rolls Royce 40/50 Silver Ghost and the only Rolls Royce-based sledge-car in the world.

Those discussions with Rolls about vast snowy landscapes with no roads for travel must have been long and interesting. Lenin famously erected the Gulags, similar to the concentration camps that the British invented in South Africa at the start of the 20th century.

Even more puzzling is that the next leader of the Soviet Union, Joseph Stalin, preferred the American Packard Twelve. A man of slight stature, he stood very tall as one of history’s most prolific killers. But he may not have had the only responsibility.

Stalin’s grasp on the Soviet Union featured many atrocities, including purges, expulsions, forced displacements, imprisonment in labor camps, manufactured famines, torture and good old-fashioned acts of mass murder and massacres.

Actually, most of the deaths are today attributed to Lavrenti Beria, head of Stalin’s Checka, and amounted to some 20 million lives, on top of the estimated 20 million Soviet troops and civilians who perished in the Second World War, for a total tally of 40 million. It was not called the Red Terror for nothing.

Both amoral psychopaths, acting like true gangsters, Stalin and Beria eliminated anyone and everyone who was a threat to their absolute power. Beria eventually killed his instrument of power (Stalin) too, new studies have shown, by poisoning him.

Chinese leader Mao Zedong had a Russian ZIS-110 which he got as a present from Stalin in 1949, although he managed to do a fair amount of killing himself.

Other Soviet leaders stuck with domestically produced cars. Nikita Khrushchev was driven in a ZIL-111 or a ZIL-111B convertible when he visited Berlin in 1960.

Leonid Brezhnev and the last Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev were both driven around in a ZIL. The latter had up to 20 of those on each of his foreign visits. This required seven Il-76 transport planes.

Russia’s first president Boris Yeltsin changed to an armoured ZIL-4105 when he became president in 1991. Later he changed it to a Mercedes S500 Pullman Guard (W140).

From then on German wheels seem to have prevailed. Russia’s current President Vladimir Putin is driven in a Mercedes S600 Pullman Guard (W-221).

John F. Kennedy, US president 1961-1963, used a Lincoln Continental. At the time of the assasination in Dallas, Texas, he was in a convertible Lincoln Continental SS-100-Х.

A man of the people, Uruguay’s acting President Jose Alberto Mujica spends almost all of his income on charity and his most expensive belonging is a powder blue VW Beetle, circa 1987.

No rattling along country roads for POTUS to meet fellow Americans, though. US President Barack Obama is transported in the armoured Cadillac One, also known as The Beast. The Bama took no cues from the Batman, clearly. His motorcade counts up to 40 vehicles transported on three Boeing С-17 Globemaster military transport planes.

British Queen Elizabeth sticks to the Bentley State Limousine, created in two copies specially for her in 2002 and British Prime Minister David Cameron still uses a Jaguar XJ X351 which he damaged in a road accident.

French President Francois Hollande changed from an armoured Renault Vel Satis to a Citroen and German Chancellor Angela Merkel drives an armoured Audi A8 L Security. She also has a BMW 760 Li E67 and a Mercedes-Benz S600 Guard V221 at her disposal.

Spain’s new King Felipe has English tastes. He prefers a Rolls Royce.

Dining with POTUS

Order one with mustard, and cross your fingers

The golden age of political poisoning has largely come and gone. POTUS, however, still eats the way a ruler of an Empire did.

We know Saddam Hussein, for one, had people on the payroll to sample his dinner. His son Uday apparently incurred his wrath by having a favorite food taster killed.

Figureheads seem to have let their guard down a bit. Royals in the UK and imperials in Japan have reportedly been eating taster-free for some time now. But others a finger on the reins of world power consider the possibility that he or she might get poisoned.

Which is why, though there may not be anyone who puts down “presidential food taster” under “occupation” on his 1040, there are definitely mechanisms in place to ensure that the U.S. president doesn’t eat anything dangerous. How these mechanisms work in practice, however . . . well, the White House, as one might imagine, plays the topic exceedingly close to the vest, and writers’ requests for details (even mine) tend to go unheeded. So we’ve been left to piece things together as best we can from the occasional news account or memoir.

What seems clear is that when the president eats somewhere other than 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., tasters — in the form of Secret Service agents or military personnel — are likely to be involved. According to a Washington Post article from July 1990, George H.W. Bush ate out at Washington restaurants a lot by presidential standards, about once a month, and when he did he brought along his own condiments, bottled water, and a taster. On at least one occasion the taster was seen to personally wash all of George and Barbara’s tableware before use and subsequently monitor its whereabouts, sample the food, supervise its service, and uncork and taste the first couple’s wine.

Reports from early in Bill Clinton’s first term suggest inconsistent taster use: a March ’93 Post account of an impromptu dinner with the Gores at a restaurant in Alexandria, Virginia, has a trio of Secret Service agents scrutinizing the preparation of Clinton’s food but not actually trying any. But an “official” food taster (described as a “veteran of three presidencies”) turns up in a local paper’s feature on a Clinton get-together with Silicon Valley types in Los Gatos, California, a month earlier. And lest you think tasters are deployed only when the president ventures off government turf, a detachment of navy culinary specialists did the tasting (per the New York Times) at a congressional lunch held at the Capitol during George W. Bush’s inaugural festivities in 2001. One presumes security has gotten tighter since (a) the 9/11 attacks and (b) the descent of W’s approval ratings to depths previously plumbed only by hostage-crisis Jimmy Carter and athlete’s foot.

The presidential food safety team’s responsibilities go well beyond packing up a squeeze bottle of Horsey Sauce if the POTUS indicates that he’s thinking Arby’s. In his 2005 book Standing Next to History, former Secret Service agent Joseph Petro — who spent 23 years in the suit and shades — writes, “In principle nothing edible gets near the President unless we know where it comes from and who has handled it.” When the president digs in at a state banquet, Petro informs us, he’s eating basically the same stuff as everyone else in the room, but his helping has been prepared specially by White House stewards, who suit up to match the other servers at the event and carry his plate out themselves. For events in foreign countries, it’s the same thing but more so. Petro writes: “Stewards find out what’s being served at the banquet and bring the ingredients with them from the United States.”

OK, but try this one. The president (Reagan) is at a baseball game (opening day 1984, Baltimore), and his handlers decide they need a photo op of him eating a hot dog. You’re the Secret Service guy. What do you do? According to Petro’s account, you do the only thing you can: you pick a vendor at random, order one with mustard, and cross your fingers.

Vladimir Putin brings his own salt, pepper, bottled water and napkin along with him, it is rumoured. Just to be on the safe side when dealing with the Empire.

An end to free government housing?

Human Settlements Minister Lindiwe Sisulu wants to end to free government housing.

“Somebody has to have the courage to say this is not what we intended,” she said. Free housing was not in the Freedom Charter, which talked of there being houses, or in the constitution, which set out the right of access to adequate shelter.

Currently there are many reports of beneficiaries of free government housing selling their homes, often for next to nothing and without the right paper work.

In her budget speech this week Sisulu said it was do-able to provide 1.5 million housing opportunities over the next five years.

This included about one million brick-and-mortar free government houses, with 50 mega-projects of at least 10 000 units to get under way within 100 days.

The remainder would be made up of site and service spots, where people could build their own homes, affordable rental accommodation and the financing in the gap housing market for those earning too much to qualify for free homes and too little for commercial mortgages.

Land is at the heart of state housing provision in integrated human settlements. Sisulu is determined suitable land will be identified and acquired: “We might think of expropriating for this purpose.”

But as the Lwandle evictions in a freezing mid-winter cold spell showed, the DA-controlled Cape Town council and provincial administration, the government-owned SA National Roads Agency and the national transport and human settlements departments will be subject to a ministerial inquiry.

Sisulu is adamant the lessons from this eviction will be applied countrywide and, if necessary, the Prevention of Illegal Eviction Act will be amended to ensure every party is aware and sticks to its obligations.

“It’s not just about Lwandle,” Sisulu said.

New biography shows Merkel close to communists

The pro-American publication Der Spiegel says a new biography on Angela Merkel’s life in East Germany shows she was closer to the communist apparatus and its ideology than previously thought.

Published this week and written by journalists Günther Lachmann and Ralf Georg Reuth, the book quotes Gunter Walther, a former colleague of hers at the Academy of Sciences in East Berlin, as saying she had been secretary for “Agitation and Propaganda” in the Freie Deutsche Jugend (FDJ) youth organization at the institute. Merkel, a trained physicist, worked at the academy from 1978 until 1989.

Excerpts from the book, “The First Life of Angela M.,” were published in the newsmagazine Focus on Monday. The mass-circulation Bild newspaper has also given the book prominent coverage in recent days.

The book explores Merkel’s life growing up in German Democratic Republic (GDR), where her father Horst Kasner was a Protestant pastor and a committed socialist. He moved to East Germany from West Germany in 1954.

Merkel has said in the past that her FDJ role at the academy was more that of a cultural secretary and that her duties included buying theater tickets and organizing book readings.

But former German Transport Minister Günther Krause — an eastern German politician who worked with her in the final months of the GDR and as a fellow minister in the government ex-chancellor Helmut Kohl in the early 1990s — contradicts her in the book and says she propagated Marxism-Leninism.

“With Agitation and Propaganda you’re responsible for brainwashing in the sense of Marxism,” he said. “That was her task and that wasn’t cultural work. Agitation and Propaganda, that was the group that was meant to fill people’s brains with everything you were supposed to believe in the GDR, with all the ideological tricks. And what annoys me about this woman is simply the fact that she doesn’t admit to a closeness to the system in the GDR. From a scientific standpoint she wasn’t indispensable at the Academy of Sciences. But she was useful as a pastor’s daughter in terms of Marxism-Leninism. And she’s denying that. But it’s the truth.”

On Sunday evening, Merkel said she hadn’t covered up anything about her past. “I can only rely on my memory,” she said at a public screening of her favorite movie, a popular love film made in East Germany, on Sunday night. “If something turns out to be different, I can live with that.”

Her past may have contributed to making her inscrutable. Focus quotes Werner Schulz, a member of the European Parliament for the Greens who grew up in East Germany, as saying: “Her secrecy is a legacy of the GDR, I think. At the time you had to be careful about blurting out your opinions without thinking first. (…) Even today not many people know what she’s really thinking.”

According to journalist Stefan Berg, the book hasn’t really shed any new light on the first 35 years of Merkel’s life. Instead, he writes, it has thrown a fresh veil over it — a veil of supposed conspiracy. “A disproportionate amount of mistrust runs through this book,” writes Berg, who was born in East Berlin in 1964. “While Merkel’s own declarations are eagerly called into question, intelligence reports are taken at face value and Socialist phrases are taken more seriously than they were in GDR times.”

The book makes the “perfidious” suggestion that secret powers aided Merkel’s path into politics, that she is some kind of Soviet plant, writes Berg.

Source: Der Spiegel

Why America needs war

Wars are a terrible waste of lives and resources, and for that reason most people are in principle opposed to wars, writes historian and political scientist Jacques Pauwels.

The American President, on the other hand, seems to love war. Why? Many commentators have sought the answer in psychological factors.

Read more.

 

Ethnic cleansing is coming to Ukraine

The NWO only leaves death and destruction, a scorched earth, in its wake

Ethnic cleansing is coming to Ukraine.

Global chessboard enthusiast Zbigniew Brzezinski has a plan for Ukraine. In a recent speech to the Woodrow Wilson Center, excerpted by the Atlantic Council, he argues forcefully in favor of the United States providing the Ukrainian military far more weapons.

Under the guise of preventing a Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has been the rallying cry of those who seek more US involvement in the region, Brzezinski believes that the US must provide Ukraine with weapons.

Russia has no such plans though.

The odds of defending against the invading Russian military being very low, Brzezinski has a different idea of how the US should arm the Kiev government.

Said the former National Security Advisor:

I feel that we should make it clear to the Ukrainians that if they are determined to resist, as they say they are and seemingly they are trying to do so (albeit not very effectively), we will provide them with anti-tank weapons, hand-held anti-tank weapons, hand-held rockets—weapons capable for use in urban short range fighting.

The US must provide urban warfare equipment to the Kiev government, he says, in order to “forestall” the impending Russian invasion.

Really? What could a huge shipment of urban warfare weapons and the advisors that go with them be used for?

Ethnic cleansing.

We already see with the resumption of Kiev’s attacks on the east, a sharp turn toward the targeting of civilian apartment blocks and non-military targets. We know from a recent United Nations report that more than 100,000 have already fled eastern Ukraine. The country’s post-coup president, Petro Poroshenko, was very clear, ending the ceasefire (that wasn’t much of a ceasefire) by stating that “We will attack and we will liberate our land!”

Does that mean liberating it from the “others” who do not accept rule by the post-coup government? Those who Kiev’s prime minister Arseniy “Yats” Yatsenyuk has already called “subhumans“?

Urban warfare equipment and training for the Kiev military machine would, as Russian political scientist Yevgeny Minchenko points out, mean “municipal infrastructure will be destroyed, leading to a humanitarian catastrophe.” In his view, “[t]he war will continue, and people will gradually leave their homes. It will be bad for both sides, but neither one can stop now.”

Brzezinski has long advocated US domination of Ukraine to deprive Russia of any productive relationship with its neighbor. “Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire,” he wrote in his 1997 book book, The Grand Chessboard.

Source: Daniel McAdams

 

Washington isolating itself says German analyst

Christoph R. Horstel, government consultant and publicist, based in Germany, discusses the situation in Ukraine.

On June, 20 Ukraine’s recently elected president, Petro Poroshenko, ordered a unilateral ceasefire between government-backed forces and independence supporters in the east until June, 27 to defuse the crisis in the country, promising amnesty for all independence defense forces not involved in grave crimes and willing to lay down their arms.

Pro-independence forces in the South East said they do not believe in the goodwill of the Kiev authorities, and that Poroshenko is not in control.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has pointed out that Poroshenko’s peace plan bears no mention of a nationwide dialogue.

Says Christoph R. Horstel, government Consultant and publicist, Germany:

“In fact, if you offer a peace plan, that plan should address the problems which have lead into a violation of peace. But the Poroshenko’s plan has never addressed anything, except for one point – complete obedience, subordination of all the Ukrainian people under the rule in Kiev, which is the result of the coup d’état – the second in ten years – a strange kind of election where a majority was no longer necessary, and meanwhile we had rumors that there were frauds all over the place with the presidential election and the government is still in the interim regime.

I think Poroshenko is a deeply criminal person and that is a big trouble for Ukraine. He is just walking after Washington and that’s a very bad story now.

What now? What could be the implications for Poroshenko?

And if I were a citizen of that area, I would never drop my arms, of course, because that is the only chance I have. Otherwise these people would be just an easy prey for whoever comes and tries to destroy homes or take away the men, and what else has happened in the past – all these kinds of atrocities.

Could it be that the Western media eventually stops to overlook how things really are in Ukraine?

What we have is a general line. The general line is not friendly to Russia.

But what we also have is so much information on the Internet about things contradicting the Washington policies and so much unhappiness among the European politicians with the same Washington policies, that in fact the media are now in a very awkward point. If they continue publishing the official stuff coming from Washington via the Western capitals to the big media, then they will lose the credibility with the population to such an extent, that their economic survival would be endangered even more than now.

You know, we have a reduced circulation number of major papers. The interest in the Internet versions of these papers is so weak, in fact, that they cannot sell their content. This is another problem of this big media. And that is what would aggravate very quickly, if they continue lying in the same fashion and strength that they had in the past.

You’re also saying that politicians are getting increasingly unhappy with the current situation?

Yes, a huge scandal has broken open in Poland. [The scandal erupted last weekend, when a Polish news outlet Wprost released a transcript of an excerpt from secretly recorded conversations involving Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski who was describing his country’s security relationship with the United States as “worth nothing.” ]

And that is in fact shaking Europe, because Poland was always considered to be the mainstay of the American interests, especially against Russia. And now the Foreign Minister, being married to an American national, he himself spoke out in such a brutal blunt way, that everybody is in fact shocked. And that makes waves in Facebook and all the alternative media in the Internet. People are crying “hoo” and “wow” and think that is very interesting, and they are very happy, and they are rejoicing it and things like that. So, in fact, they treat him as a hero. He is a hero, Mr. Sikorski.

In Germany we have a former member of the Foreign Committee of the German Bundestag, Mr. Gauweiler, who is an important person in the Conservative Party in southern Germany, saying that this is all going wrong regarding Russia and Ukraine and he is opposed to it. We have the former politicians speaking out in large numbers. And we know that the whole German Government is very uneasy. The economic circles are up in arms in an unprecedented way since the WW II. So, if that is not enough, I don’t know what is.

But does that imply that perhaps we are going to see a change of heart and a change of course in the West?

I think something is still missing. And I’m wondering myself what that could be. We have so terrible pictures from Ukraine. You cannot in this 21st century oppress people like we have see in the Middle Ages, that this is crazy.

In fact, if we look at the details, we see that the real terror operation by Kiev. We have heard that the professional killers trained by the CIA in Poland are used in Ukraine to kill their own people, their own brothers and sisters, so to say, in such a fashion. This is something terrible. The European people may be corrupt, there may be bad governments, but they are not stupid. And they have open eyes, they see these realities themselves, even if they push their media to publish otherwise. That is the situation. It is a complete hypocrisy phenomena we have there in politics today.

But, at the same time, if Russia actively intervenes, Russia would be there to blame.

Of course! And I’m quite sure, if that happens, if Russia takes out a big stick, that is something Washington is hoping for all the time. This is why they are going so hardcore and push Ukraine to execute these wishes. They hope that Russia would be unwise and come in with big troops, and take up the battle. And I don’t think Russia will do that.

It drives the Western politicians nuts. They get crazy over the fact that Russia is patient, very constructive, all the time talking to everybody explaining exactly what they are doing and the Western side is looking like a warmonger all the time. That cannot continue that way for a long time in the West.

And there is another aspect to that, as far as I understand, shares of leading Western companies are going down. And that is a brilliant chance for the Chinese.

Germany, yes, is doing quite well, but all the other countries in Europe are further and further down the road. These are huge inroads also on the technological advantage of the Western countries, which is diminishing day by day, because they have to simply sell their nuggets to the Chinese in such a bad situation.

So, in fact, one of the big winners keeping out of most of the trouble is China right now.

What we have is that all of these countries – Russia and China, and others – investing a lot of money into armament, and this comes only because of these Washington hegemonic terror policies.

Which means that Washington’s policy is reinforcing China, which Washington sees as its biggest adversary. Where is the logic?

There is no strategy anymore. There is no plan reaching beyond a few months. That is very bad. We have all kinds of plans, of course, of interference and scenarios by the military, and these things. But what we do not have is a real policy – policy planning, policy strategy to go ahead constructively. What Washington is doing, is isolating itself as if it was its own arch enemy.

Source: VoR

 

Rape now almost as common in Sweden as in South Africa

As a result of immigration and government cover-ups, rape statistics in Sweden have shot through the roof. Sweden is the only industrial country that gets anywhere near South Africa, the so-called “rape capital of the world”.

According to international rape statistics per capita, South Africa is right at the top, while Sweden comes in at number six, after three Southern African countries (Botswana, Lesotho, and Swaziland), as well as Bermuda. How come Sweden, renowned for its social welfare system and hard-core feminism, could top the charts in Europe when it comes to female violation, just like politically correct South Africa has shown the world what sexual tyranny looks like?

Foreigners (the red bar) commit most rapes in Sweden, yet the government refuses to acknowledge the fact
Foreigners (the red bar) commit most rapes in Sweden, yet the government refuses to acknowledge the fact

According to this Swedish graph, rape is disproportionately committed by immigrants. UN figures, as reported by the left-wing Swedish daily Aftonbladet, show that the incidence of rape in Sweden steadily rose per 100 000 population members from 2004 to 2008:

2008: 53.2

2007: 46.6

2006: 40.6

2005: 36.8

2004: 25.1

Last year, in 2013, Sweden’s rate was even higher at 63 per 100 000.

As Aftonbladet puts it: “Only in the small African country of Lesotho were more rapes reported than here,” ironically forgetting about the “heavyweight champion” in this domain, South Africa.

However, the Swedish academic and government elite refuse to acknowledge the obvious, namely that rape is fuelled by immigration. Here is what professor Niklas Långström, an expert on sex crimes at the Karolinska Institute, has to say:

“The high figure does not necessarily mean that Swedes are actually at greater risk of being raped than others. The reason is that the propensity to report a rape may be higher here than in other countries.”

‘It’s the drink’

Niklas Långström
Niklas Långström

Professor Långström also blames a greater propensity to consume alcohol among Swedish men for the rise in rape statistics.

“We consume more alcohol and it is seen more in outdoor environments than before. This increases the risk situations. Say that two to three percent of the male population would be willing to commit sex offences in certain circumstances. Now they are exposed to more opportunities than in the past,” he says.

Government officials also regard the rise in sex crimes as a statistical anomaly due to “better reporting”.

 

Mass surveillance destroys the economy

Privacy is a prerequisite for a prosperous economy. Four ways that mass surveillance hurts the US economy.

The Information and Privacy Commissioner of Ontario, Canada – Ann Cavoukian, Ph.D. – noted last month:

Privacy is Essential to … Prosperity and Well-Being

• Innovation, creativity and the resultant prosperity of a society requires freedom;

• Privacy is the essence of freedom: Without privacy, individual human rights, property rights and civil liberties – the conceptual engines of innovation and creativity, could not exist in a meaningful manner;

• Surveillance is the antithesis of privacy: A negative consequence of surveillance is the usurpation of a person’s limited cognitive bandwidth, away from innovation and creativity.

The Financial Post reported in February: “Big Brother culture will have adverse effect on creativity, productivity“.

Christopher Lingle – visiting professor of economics at ESEADE, Universidad Francisco Marroquín – agrees that creativity is a key to economic prosperity.

Edward Snowden said last year:

The success of economies in developed nations relies increasingly on their creative output, and if that success is to continue we must remember that creativity is the product of curiosity, which in turn is the product of privacy.

Silicon Valley is currently one of the largest drivers of the U.S. economy. Do you think Bill Gates and Steve Jobs could have tinkered so creatively in their garages if the government had been watching everything they do?

Everyone who has every done anything creative knows that you need a little privacy to try different things before you’re ready to go public with it. If your bench model, rough sketch or initial melody is being dissected in real time by an intrusive audience … you’re not going to be very creative.

Moreover, surveillance hampers the free flow of information as many people begin to watch what they say. The free flow of information is a core requisite for a fast-moving economy … especially an information economy, as opposed to economies focused on resource-extraction or manufacturing.

As quoted above, the White House states:

Assuring the free flow of information [is] essential to American and global economic prosperity, security, and the promotion of universal rights.

Mass surveillance makes people more reluctant to share information … and thus hurts the economy.

Top computer and internet experts say that NSA spying breaks the functionality of our computers and of the Internet. It reduces functionality and reduces security by – for example – creating backdoors that malicious hackers can get through.

Remember, American and British spy agencies have intentionally weakened security for many decades. And it’s getting worse and worse. For example, they plan to use automated programs to infect millions of computers.

How much time and productivity have we lost in battling viruses let in because of the spies tinkering? How much have we lost because “their” computer programs conflict with “our” programs?

Microsoft’s general counsel labels government snooping an “advanced persistent threat,” a term generally used to describe teams of hackers that coordinate cyberattacks for foreign governments. It is well-known among IT and security professionals that hacking decreases employee productivity. While they’re usually referring to hacking by private parties, the same is likely true for hacking by government agencies, as well.

And the spy agencies are already collecting millions of webcam images from our computers. THAT’S got to tie up our system resources … so we can’t get our work done as fast.

Moreover, the Snowden documents show that the American and British spy agencies launched attacks to disrupt the computer networks of “hacktivists” and others they don’t like, and tracked supporters of groups such as Wikileaks.

Given that the spy agencies are spying on everyone, capturing millions of screenshots, intercepting laptop shipments, creating fake versions of popular websites to inject malware on people’s computers, launching offensive cyber-warfare operations against folks they don’t like, and that they may view journalism, government criticism or even thinking for one’s self as terrorism – and tend to re-label “dissidents” as “terrorists” – it’s not unreasonable to assume that all of us are being adversely effected to one degree or another by spy agency operations.

Bill Binney – the high-level NSA executive who created the agency’s mass surveillance program for digital information, a 32-year NSA veteran widely regarded as a “legend” within the agency, the senior technical director within the agency, who managed thousands of NSA employees – tells Washington’s Blog:

The other costs involve weakening systems (operating systems/firewalls/encryption). When they do that, this weakens the systems for all to find. Hackers around the world as well as governments too.

These costs are hard to count. For example, we hear of hackers getting customer data over and over again. Is that because of what our government has done?

Or, how about all the attacks on systems in government? Are these because of weakened systems?

Trust is KEY for a prosperous economy. It’s hard to trust when your government, your internet service provider and your favorite websites are all spying on you.

The destruction of privacy by the NSA directly harms internet companies, Silicon Valley, California … and the entire U.S. economy (Facebook lost 11 millions users as of April mainly due to privacy concerns … and that was before the Snowden revelations). If people don’t trust the companies to keep their data private, they’ll use foreign companies.

American tech companies – including Verizon, Cisco, IBM and others – are getting hammered for their cooperating with the NSA and lack of privacy protection. The costs to the U.S. economy have been estimated to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars. And see this and this.

And destruction of trust in government and other institutions is destroying our economy.

A top cyber security consultant notes:

If privacy is not protected while performing mass surveillance for national security purposes, then the people’s level of trust in the government decreases.

And as we noted in 2002:

Personal freedom and liberty – and freedom from the arbitrary exercise of government power – are strongly correlated with a healthy economy, but America is descending into tyranny.

Authoritarian actions by the government interfere with the free market, and thus harm prosperity.

U.S. News and World Report notes:

The Fraser Institute’s latest Economic Freedom of the World Annual Report is out, and the news is not good for the United States. Ranked among the five freest countries in the world from 1975 through 2002, the United States has since dropped to 18th place.

The Cato institute notes:

The United States has plummeted to 18th place in the ranked list, trailing such countries as Estonia, Taiwan, and Qatar.

So lawlessness infringement of our liberty is destroying our prosperity.

Put another way, lack of privacy kills the ability to creatively criticize bad government policy … and to demand enforcement of the rule of law. Indeed, 5,000 years of history shows that mass surveillance is always carried out to crush dissent. In other words, mass surveillance is the opposite of the principle of the rule of law (in distinction to the rule of men) upon which America was founded.

Free speech and checks and balances on the power of government officials are two of the main elements of justice in any society. And a strong rule of law is – in turn – the main determinant of GDP growth.

Source: Washington’s blog

From the pages of Orwell and 1984

By Wayne Madsen.

«Oceania was at war with Eurasia: therefore Oceania had always been at war with Eurasia. The enemy of the moment always represented absolute evil, and it followed that any past or future agreement with him was impossible». These are the words from «1984», George Orwell’s fictional novel and eerily correct prognostication of future events from geopolitics to the loss of privacy and the rise of the surveillance state. Oceania fictionally represented the British Isles, North and South America, southern Africa, and Australasia. In Orwell’s world, Eurasia was comprised of Russia and Europe while another power, Eastasia, included China, Korea, and Japan.

Today, a modified form of the dystopian future world map of Orwell is becoming reality as Russia and China increasingly cooperate economically, politically, and militarily to ensure that the forces of Oceania – centered in Washington, London, Berlin, and Paris – do not overrun Eurasia.

At last month’s third annual International Security Conference in Moscow, a conclave sponsored by the Russian Defense Ministry, Chief of Staff of the Russian armed forces, General Valery Gerasimov stated that Western-financed and organized «color revolutions», such as those employed twice in Ukraine and once in Georgia, represent a form of irregular warfare against Eurasia. Gerasimov’s statement about North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries, which resemble Orwell’s Oceania, launching irregular warfare against Eurasia could have been torn from the pages of «1984». Gerasimov cited information warfare, economic sanctions, and support for «proxy criminal organizations» and extremist groups as part of the West’s irregular warfare construct directed against Eurasia.

Gerasimov also said that color revolutions were part and parcel of Western military strategy against Eurasia since the non-military tactics employed were often followed by military force to bring about regime change. This is now the case with the Ukrainian government’s NATO-supported military offensive against federalists in eastern Ukraine, as well as in NATO support for Islamist rebels battling against the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Military intervention, including air attacks, was also employed by NATO after the Islamist uprising in eastern Libya that eventually forced Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi from power.

Gerasimov’s comments about color revolutions was supported by none other than Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a non-profit think tank that often reflects the views of the Central Intelligence Agency and U.S. State Department. Cordesman said color revolutions sponsored by the West were a new form of warfare against Russia and China.

Belarusian Defense Minister Yury Zhadobin cited the «godfather» of George Soros- and CIA-financed themed uprisings and revolutions, Gene Sharp, the director of the Albert Einstein Institution in Boston as the prime motivator of the uprisings witnessed in Europe and the Middle East. The armed forces of Russia, China, and Belarus now consider the West’s support for regime change through color revolutions as being part of the military doctrines of the United States and NATO. The military planners in Moscow, Beijing, and Minsk also view Western private military contractors – mercenaries — such as the former Blackwater, now Academi, as being part of the West’s regime change scenario after the outbreak of color revolutions.

The reasons for the West’s color revolution and regime change project for Eurasia are clear. With Russia and China at the forefront of developing new Eurasian energy schemes involving natural gas and new transportation routes evoking memories of the old Silk Road, the West feels threatened by the emergence in Eurasia of a dynamic new market that could not only rival but eclipse the European Union and Washington’s proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

The emergence of a new Eurasian identity has alarmed the political leaders of de facto Oceania. Eurasia places economic development and respect for traditions over what many in Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and other countries of the region see as a Western «culture» that emphasizes pop culture, homosexuality, destruction of social safety nets, disrespect for religion, destruction of the traditional family unit, and unbridled vulture capitalism that promotes draconian austerity.

The Moscow security conference met at about the same time that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping met at the fourth Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) held in Shanghai. There, Xi emphasized that Asia has entered the 21st century at that the Cold War mentality should be abandoned. Observers from Japan and the United States looked on as Asian delegates roundly rejected President Barack Obama’s Cold War military «pivot to Asia» and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s revanchist imperial military buildup in east Asia. In many respects, the United States Pacific forces and Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea represent the militaristic «Eastasia» of «1984», an entity that was allied for a period of time with Oceania.

Not only was the «Power of Siberia» natural gas pipeline, which will begin pumping natural gas from Siberia to China in 2018, agreed upon in Shanghai but there are plans to restore the old Silk Road as a major trans-Eurasian highway that will link China to Europe via the trans-Siberian highway and Europe’s E-30 highway. Eventually, an A-class motor highway will link Amsterdam with Beijing via the Asian Highway Network. This network of modern highways will restore the ancient Silk Road of Asia and move goods and passengers throughout Eurasia and, in the process, build new infrastructures in the remotest parts of the Eurasian heartland. This prospect has the banking houses of Europe and America concerned since they will be locked out of the financial sweepstakes.

Eurasia’s leaders, from Putin and Xi, to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Afghan President Hamid Karzai are well aware that the color revolutions that have wracked Ukraine, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan have been financed by George Soros’s Open Society Institute and Foundation and that Soros’s hedge fund empire is nothing more than a front for the international House of Rothschild banking cartel. NATO and the Obama administration, which represent the interests of Soros and the Rothschilds, will stop at nothing to destroy the Eurasian initiative. The «Euromaidan» overthrow of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who rejected a union with the European Union and appeared ready to forge ties with Eurasia, was part of the West’s (or «Oceania’s) first indirect military aggression against Eurasia.

Some Eurasian leaders are aware that the West is trying to derail the developing Eurasian Union. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev proposed transforming CICA into a new Organization for Security and Development in Asia (OSDA), which would be the closest thing to a Eurasian counterpart to NATO. Stressing Eurasia’s rejection of Western «values», Nazarbayev stressed that OSDA would be built upon Asian «tradition and values». Nazarbayev appeared to be speaking for a number of Eurasian leaders in rejecting the lewd permissiveness of Western culture as witnessed by «Pussy Riot’s» and FEMEN’s displays of vulgarity and gratuitous nudity in places of religious worship in Russia, Ukraine, and other countries.

There is a new competitor to America’s version of Oceania now emerging in Orwell’s Eurasia. Halford John Mackinder’s «Heartland Theory», which was espoused in his book «The Geographical Pivot of History», postulated that the power that controlled Eurasia’s heartland between the Volga and Yangtze and the Arctic Sea and Himalayas would control the destiny of the world. If the Eurasian Union becomes a successful political and economic union, the United States, Britain, Western Europe, and Japan will be confined to a economically anemic and socially decadent coastal «Rimland» where the few remaining assets will be fought over by the hungry jackals of the banking houses of Wall Street, City of London, and Frankfurt. The outbreak of wars in Syria, Ukraine, and Iraq are but the first shots of the impending war between «Oceania» and «Eurasia».

Asset management faces a revolution

A recent report from KPMG claims the next 15 years could produce something of a revolution.

In the paper, titled “Investing in the Future”, KPMG describes how the world of investment management is likely to change by 2030.

The investment management industry is still in its infancy compared to other financial services sectors.

It has grown on the back of the baby boomers over the last 30 years. But healthy margins often breed complacency, and because of the growth story, there has generally been a lack of innovation.

The KPMG report highlights four megatrends that it believes will shape the sector over the next decade and a half – demographics, environment, technology and social values, and behaviour and ethics.

The younger client base wants immediate and personalised information and traditional models have become obsolete.

KPMG also believes that investors will “increasingly value outcomes and certainty over returns”. This could extend to retirement products offering more than just cash-based payouts.

“For most, retirement planning is about securing lifestyle expectations rather than simply cash accumulation,” the report states. “On that basis, options to secure holidays, cars and healthcare during retirement may be as attractive as putting aside cash.”

Technology has increased competition and investment managers will not only have to manage their products accordingly but how clients engage with them.

“Personalised information and education about the choices available will become as important – if not more so – than the underlying product,” the report argues.

Part of this will be the desire for investment managers to have a more direct relationship with their clients.

“We also believe that investment managers can play a much broader, deeper role in clients’ lives and the industry value chain,” KPMG states.

“However, it will require a very different business model; one which requires providers to be much more engaging and relevant to a broader range of customers. This will mean understanding clients far better than today and creating a new value proposition based around education, outcomes (not just returns), flexibility and personalised solutions.

“While relatively small in both number and scale at this stage, there are emerging models leveraging a combination of technology, data and social networks to bring fresh propositions to market which play to the evolving megatrends,” it says. “These could have the potential to cause waves in the industry.”

The biggest challenge is establishing a trusted brand, something that is critical in any financial services business. But while this is a short-term concern, it is also potentially a longer term opportunity.

Companies might look to form strategic partnerships with established providers. Already there are examples in China of social network brands linking up with asset managers to distribute their products.

“This potentially provides opportunities for non-traditional new entrants,” the report argues. “It may seem a little clichéd but could the likes of Amazon, Google and Apple be the next powerhouses in investment management? After all, they are the top three in the Fortune World’s Most Admired Companies list in 2014.”

These companies already have ubiquitous brands, business models designed around understanding personal needs, huge existing client bases, and the proven ability to use the data that they capture to deliver personalised services. This could be exactly what the industry needs.

Are cars in SA too pricey?

Not really, says Motormanpete

On the face of it, and certainly the emotional response will always be a resounding yes!

While SA seems expensive it may be because we are basing our opinions on misguided ramblings of people who have not done their research.

A Toyota Yaris costs less in some obscure country than in South Africa but when you have a look at the big picture, our cars are on balance, very competitively priced.

Don’t believe me? Firstly let’s get rid of the “cars are so cheap in America” issue. Cars are cheap in America because they sell upwards of 20 million of them per year – its simple economies of scale.

But have you looked at how much more cars cost in some European countries? Check out the pricing of the Mercedes-Benz A250 7 G-Tronic: South Africa: R450 900, Portugal: Euro 42 700 (R619 150), France: Euro 36 300 (R526 350), Germany: Euro 38 437 (R557 336), UK: GBR 26 640 (R717 681).

Cough, splutter! The Mercedes is cheaper in South Africa.

Granted, this a small sample, but the point is clear. There are simply too many manufacturers present in the market for there to be room for much pricing abuse.

With over 50 brands and thousands of models on offer – it’s way too competitive out there.

All things aside, did you know that the 70th percentile benchmark dealers are lucky to achieve a 3% PBT? That makes the business very, very marginal and frankly I would invest my money somewhere else.

So if you want to question whether we are getting ripped off, let’s have a look at a few other industries.

Our cell phone calls are some of the most expensive in the world. Don’t even mention Apple computers.

And a litre of coke by the way costs more than a litre of petrol or a litre of beer. Why? Both the latter have far more complex processes and to add insult to injury, a litre of soda water costs the same as a coke.

DSTV must rank as one of the bigger rip-offs. But then they do have an absolute monopoly so when they stop flighting movies on TV made this century and put all the good stuff on Box Office at extra cost – what can we do?

But the ultimate problem does not lie with the pricing itself. The harsh reality is that all these products and services seem so expensive because we earn so little compared to Europe and the US.

So next time you question pricing in South Africa, don’t immediately jump to conclusions about everybody being a rip-off.

It may be a case of confusing “expensive” with “can’t afford”. Not all of us are ANC-cadres.

 

East, West, which one is best?

We have written quite a few times on our Afrikaans site about the trend in the car world for car makers to reduce the size of their egines. This is motivated not only by technologicial advances, but also by the increasing legislation on environmental pollution.

The Chevrolet Cruze 1.4 T LS
The Chevrolet Cruze 1.4 T LS

This week we are looking at three cars which are supposed to be compact family sedans, but that could almost serve as full-size sedans. All three have four dours, five seats and gigantic trunks. Those are attributes of a family sedan, but all three are driven by ultra-small enjins producing more power than the Toyota Camry 2.2, which for many years was the best-selling family sedan in South Africa.

We road-tested the Chevrolet Cruze 1.4T LS, the Opel Astra 1.4 Turbo Enjoy Sedan and the GWM se C50T Elite for a few days. Our full report will appear here shortly, but our editor was in such a hurry to show these three cars to our readers that we posted this teaser for the moment!