Tag: UK

Surf’s up: Antibiotic-resistant E.coli invading UK beaches

Perhaps it’s not too much of a surprise to learn that there’s a strong correlation between spending time in not-particularly-clean water and exposure to antibiotic-resistant bacteria. This is the revelation of a study presented Monday at the Society for General Microbiology’s Annual Conference, which estimates that swimmers, surfers, and other folks splashing around in the waters off England and Wales ingested antibiotic-resistant strains of Escherichia coli more than six million times in 2012.

The estimate is based on water samples taken from “coastal bathing waters” and varying estimates of incidental or accidental water swallowing involved with different water sports, including swimming and surfing.

According to the paper from a team at the University of Exeter Medical School, antibiotic-resistant E. coli is a reasonably rare phenomenon, accounting for about .12 percent of all E. coli found in the coastal waters in question. This becomes nontrivial with more exposures, which is a product of both the type of water activity and its frequency. For example, a surfer will certainly ingest more water and more resistant bacteria than a kayaker.

The strains of E. coli covered in the study are actually resistant to a whole class of antibiotics known as the third-generation cephalosporins. These are some of the most popular (overpopular, really) antibiotics out there, and this makes them especially vulnerable to emerging resistance.

E. coli, meanwhile, is a classic example of two-faced bacteria, with some strains existing harmlessly in the human gut and other virulent strains posing real dangers to humans in the form of food poisoning and diarrhea, as well as gnarlier stuff like bacterial pneumonia, urinary tract infections, and beyond. E. coli also happens to be rather adept at passing its own developed antibiotic resistance to bigger villains like Staphylococcus aureus through a process known as horizontal gene transfer.​

“We know very little about how the natural environment can spread antibiotic resistant bacteria to humans, or how our exposure to these microbes can affect health,” offered co-author William Gaze in a statement. “People are exposed to antibiotic resistant bacteria in many ways, through person-to-person contact, via food and as a result of international travel.”

“Our research establishes recreational use of coastal waters as an additional route of exposure,” Gaze said. “With millions of people visiting beaches in England and Wales each year, there is a risk of people ingesting 3GC resistant E. coli, and it looks like water-users’ exposure to all resistant bacteria could be even higher.”

Source: Motherboard

UK teenager arrested after racist soccer tweet

A teenager has been arrested on suspicion of sending a racist tweet aimed at black Arsenal striker Danny Welbeck.coon

The post was made after Welbeck netted the winning goal during an FA Cup quarter-final clash against his former club Manchester United on 9 March.

The slur was one of a number of messages posted in the aftermath of Welbeck’s return.

Tweeted by user @angeIsleftfoot, the offending message was posted after Welbeck’s decisive role in Arsenal’s 2-1 Quarter Final victory at Old Trafford.

Officers in Manchester with specialist training in social media identified the user and passed on the information to Wiltshire Police, who confirmed they have now made an arrest.

Welbeck was shown the door by United boss Louis van Gaal last year, who claimed he was not good enough.

The 15-year-old boy, from the Salisbury area, was arrested on suspicion of racial abuse and released on bail until 13 April, Wiltshire Police said.

US attacks London’s ‘constant accomodation’ of China

The Obama administration accused the UK of a “constant accommodation” of China after Britain decided to join a new China-led financial institution that could rival the World Bank.

The rare rebuke of one of the US’s closest allies came as Britain prepared to announce that it will become a founding member of the $50bn Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, making it the first country in the G7 group of leading economies to join an institution launched by China last October.

Thursday’s reprimand was a rare breach in the “special relationship” that has been a backbone of western policy for decades. It also underlined US concerns over China’s efforts to establish a new generation of international development banks that could challenge Washington-based global institutions. The US has been lobbying other allies not to join the AIIB.

Relations between Washington and David Cameron’s government have become strained, with senior US officials criticising Britain over falling defence spending, which could soon go below the Nato target of 2 per cent of gross domestic product.

A senior US administration official told the Financial Times that the British decision was taken after “virtually no consultation with the US” and at a time when the G7 had been discussing how to approach the new bank.

“We are wary about a trend toward constant accommodation of China, which is not the best way to engage a rising power,” the US official said.

British officials were publicly restrained in criticising China over its handling of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protests while Mr Cameron has made it clear he has no further plans to meet the Dalai Lama, Tibet’s spiritual leader — after a 2012 meeting that prompted a furious response from Beijing.

While Beijing has long been suspicious about US influence over the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, China also believes that the US and Japan have too much control over the Manila-based Asian Development Bank. In addition to the AIIB, China is the driving force behind last year’s creation of a Brics development bank and is promoting a $40bn Silk Road Fund to finance economic integration with Central Asia.

The Obama administration has said it is not opposed to the AIIB but US officials fear it could become an instrument of Chinese foreign policy if Beijing ends up having veto power over the bank’s decisions.

The UK Treasury denied that Britain had acted out of the blue, saying there had been “at least a month of extensive consultation” at a G7 level, including with Jack Lew, US Treasury secretary.

George Osborne, UK chancellor of the exchequer, was unrepentant, arguing that Britain should be in at the start of the new bank, ensuring that it operates in a transparent way. He believes it fills an important gap in providing finance for infrastructure for Asia.

“Joining the AIIB at the founding stage will create an unrivalled opportunity for the UK and Asia to invest and grow together,” Mr Osborne said. He expects other western countries, which have been making positive noises privately about the new bank, to become involved.

Beijing launched the AIIB in October with the backing of 20 other countries but Japan, South Korea and Australia —US allies in the region — did not become founding members. There has been a strong debate within the Australian cabinet about whether to join, after US pressure to stay on the sidelines.

Mr Osborne’s decision reflects London’s desire to pursue commercial relations with China aggressively, even at the expense of antagonising Washington.

The UK has been keen to establish the City of London as a platform for overseas business in the Chinese currency as it starts to play a bigger role in the global economy.

Source: FT

Gays turn to incest in Britain

Gays in Britain have now turned to incest to have children. A woman has helped her 24-year-old son become a father by carrying his child.

In the first surrogacy of its kind, a donor egg fertilised by her son Kyle was implanted in British woman Anne-Marie Casson, 46.

Kyle, gay and single, had wanted to be a father “for some considerable time”.

A surrogacy clinic had turned him away, and then a female relative who had volunteered to be the surrogate developed medical difficulties.

It was at this point that Anne-Marie Casson and her husband Alan decided that she should be the surrogate mother.

A family court judge ruled that it was “entirely lawful” for Kyle to adopt the baby, Miles – his son but also, legally, his brother.

Kyle is the first single man in the UK to have a child through surrogacy, and the first to use his mother as the carrier.

The Cassons’ case has ignited huge controversy: the participants’ consanguinity raises the spectre of one of the few remaining taboos – incest.

Both Anne-Marie and Kyle Casson have said their gay friends have been overwhelmingly supportive.

France will not send military, arms to Kiev

France has no plans of sending military instructors or delivering equipment to Ukraine as opposed to Great Britain, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said Wednesday.

On Tuesday, British Prime Minister David Cameron announced that Britain would send instructors to Ukraine to train the country’s military, Sputniknews reported.

“Great Britain has taken a hardline to the situation and is considering a number of measures that you have said [sending military instructors], which Prime Minister David Cameron announced. We have also taken a firm position, but are still pushing for the de-escalation of the conflict,” Fabius said on France Info radio station.

France is party to the Normandy format talks on Ukrainian reconciliation, which also includes Russia, Germany and Ukraine. The most recent Normandy-quartet meeting between foreign ministers took place in Paris on Tuesday.

Kiev authorities repeatedly asked foreign partners for lethal assistance. On Tuesday, Ukrainian Interior Minister Anton Gerashchenko said that the United Arab Emirates had agreed to send weapons and military hardware to Ukraine.

A number of European states, including Germany, refused to arm Kiev. The United States, where according to a recent poll by Pew Research Center more than half of the respondents oppose sending weapons to Ukraine, is yet to make a decision on the matter.

British threaten to halt intel to Germany

British intelligence chiefs have threatened to halt their sharing of information with their German counterparts if Germany goes ahead with a parliamentary inquiry into British and US spying, according German media reports.

The British are worried that German politicians could expose classified information including details of code breaking and other technology, including a European surveillance program, which was launched last year, said a report in German weekly magazine, Focus.

Head of Germany’s federal intelligence agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND) Gerhard Schindler, is reportedly taking the British threat seriously.

Schindler told the parliamentary inquiry on the issue on Wednesday evening that he was experiencing “unusually tense relations with British partner agencies.”

The UK provides crucial eavesdropping powers, which is shared with the German agencies.

“Without the information from British signals intelligence we would be blind,” an unnamed senior German intelligence official told Focus.

New DNA tests question Queen’s legitimacy

New DNA analysis of the remains of one of England’s most well-known monarchs, King Richard III, has led to fresh questions over the legitimacy of the present British Royal family, the House of Windsor.

“We question the legitimacy of the current Royal family. If they, the Royal heirs, are prepared to offer their DNA then ‘finality’ would be in order,” Craig Rex, who claims to be a 7th-generation descendant of another well-known English monarch, King George III, told Sputnik Thursday.

Historians remain split on the issue, but some researchers believe George Rex of Knysna in South Africa, was the legitimate first-born son of King George III of England. Now new speculation of a mismatch in the DNA of Richard III has reignited questions over the rightful inheritors of the throne of England.

“We do believe that there were strong ties between my ancestor George Rex of Knysna and the British Royal family at the time,” Rex said, adding that “There are contemporaneous documents, showing the Royal Family went hunting on the Rex estate during visits to South Africa. Why was there this strong connection when George Rex was the supposed son of a distiller?”

In a 1997 documentary, film maker Kenneth Griffith revealed “disturbing evidence” that George Rex was the “forgotten” legitimate son of King George III and should have become King of England. Griffith controversially claimed George III’s first marriage to quaker girl Hannah Lightfoot caused a scandal in the ruling establishment of the day, which was embarrassed about the King having married a commoner.

Second Child of British Royal Couple Expected in April
Griffith claimed the establishment then banished the legitimate off-spring to South Africa. But Griffith George III’s marriage to Lightfoot was never annulled and so, King George’s subsequent marriage to Charlotte Sophia of Mecklenburg-Strelitz in 1761 was illegitimate and so was the Royal status of all their subsequent heirs.

Royalist supporters maintain the documents Griffith produced were 19th century forgeries, aimed at discrediting the Monarchy, but despite descendants of George Rex willing to undertake DNA comparison testing the current Queen and her heirs remain unlikely to provide their own samples.

“Regarding DNA testing the current monarchy, I would welcome any scientific investigation that would reveal the facts that would stand up to peer review,” Trevor Rix, an administrator with a DNA comparison project, told Sputnik Thursday.

“Having said that, the current monarchy is very stable and has an enormous beneficial impact on the country both at home and abroad. I would therefore not want to see the boat rocked too much,” Rix added.

Queen Calls for Unity Following Scotland’s Independence Referendum
Rix, who helps run the “Rix worldwide DNA project”, believes that the evidence he has gathered suggests George Rex of Knysna was not related to George III, but added more DNA comparison was needed before any final conclusions can be reached.

“Although we only have the one Y-DNA test on a Rex descendant of George Rex to go on, that single test matches test results of many descendants of Rix families whose ancestors predate George III,” Rix told Sputnik.

“So, as with the Richard III case, the DNA does not lie. Both cases illustrate that hearsay and descendancy on paper may well lie,” Rix added.

A study published this week in the Nature Communications journal, following DNA tests on the remains of Richard III, produced clear evidence of infidelity in the Royal family line.

Scientists remain uncertain when the break in linage may have occurred, but Dr Anna Whitelock of the University of London told the BBC that any break in the family tree would be unlikely to affect on the current status of the Queen.

Global demands for justice reaching ‘critical mass’

A report from the United Nations accuses past and current US officials of withholding details regarding which specific individuals were responsible for the nation’s policy of enhanced interrogation, known throughout the rest of the world as torture. While the illegal acts were approved at the highest level of the US government, the UN insists those responsible still must be tried for war crimes, and if convicted, imprisoned.

In 2005, in response to global accusations of American war crimes, the United Nations Commission on Human Rights passed Resolution 2005/80. It created a special investigator for a period of three years and specifically empowered him to investigate the US-backed War on Terror. The first appointed UN investigator was Martin Scheinin of Finland. Currently, the UK’s Ben Emmerson is the lead investigator. And it’s Mr. Emmerson that has criticized both the Bush and Obama administrations for withholding evidence of war crimes.

The UN committee originally charged the special investigator with carrying out seven individual mandates. Six of the tasks revolve around developing a modern UN policy to work with US and NATO-backed forces to insure human rights are respected in the midst of their international war on terror. But one of the seven UN mandates, the one the US is accused of stymieing, reads (from the UN Human Rights Commission):

‘To gather, request, receive and exchange information and communications from and with all relevant sources, including Governments, the individuals concerned and their families, representatives and organizations, including through country visits, with the consent of the State concerned, on alleged violations of human rights and fundamental freedoms while countering terrorism.’

UN isn’t playing games with US and UK

After eight years of stonewalling and resistance by US and UK authorities, the UN special investigator addressed the world body’s Human Rights Commission publicly, demanding the two nations cooperate with the investigation.

Ben Emmerson, the lead special investigator, described to the gathered UN dignitaries a setting of self-approved legal immunity among US and UK national leaders. He called the two governments’ standing policy, “A policy of de facto immunity for public officials who engaged in acts of torture, rendition and secret detention, and their superiors and political masters who authorized these acts.”

In his speech before the UN commission, Emmerson described how African and Middle Eastern citizens and their governments are demanding the perpetrators be brought to justice. Many have watched their own national leaders arrested and charged with war crimes for virtually the same acts that US and UK officials are currently accused.

“Words are not enough,” UN investigator Emmerson remarked, speaking indirectly to Western leaders, “Platitudinous repetition of statements affirming opposition to torture ring hollow to many in those parts of the Middle East and North Africa that have undergone, or are undergoing, major upheaval, since they have first-hand experience of living under repressive regimes that used torture in private whilst making similar statements in public.”

Then, speaking specifically of those same Western regimes, Emmerson said, “The skepticism of these communities can only be reinforced if Western governments continue to demonstrate resolute indifference to the crimes committed by their predecessor administrations.”

Global demands for justice reaching “critical mass”

Marches and protests across the globe would seem to support Ben Emmerson and his team’s conclusions. However, Western officials have remained steadfast in their resistance to being held accountable. But the world may not wait much longer Emmerson suggests, “Calls for accountability are fast approaching a critical mass.” And moments prior to his condemning speech to the UN committee, the chief investigator is reported to have spoken candidly to the UK’s Guardian.

As quoted by ReaderSupportedNews.org, Ben Emmerson told the British news outlet, “In South America, it took up to thirty years before the officials responsible for crimes like these were held fully accountable. With the conspiracy organized by the Bush-ear CIA, it has taken a decade. But the campaign for securing the right to truth has now reached a critical point.”

In a separate report of the speech by RT News, the outlet quotes UN investigator Emmerson as explaining that one of the most glaring examples of CIA human rights violations are the agency’s secret ‘black sites’, “There is now credible evidence to show that CIA black sites were located on the territory of Lithuania, Morocco, Poland, Romania and Thailand, and that the officials of at least 49 other states allowed their airspace or airports to be used for rendition flights.”

Emmerson went on to explain, “Despite this clear repudiation of the unlawful actions carried out by the Bush-era CIA, many of the facts remain classified, and no public official has so far been brought to justice in the United States.”

It’s apparent that the United Nations is serious about bringing US and UK public officials to trial for international war crimes related to torture and the West’s war on terror. But without the cooperation of the current governments of the two nations, UN human rights investigators will have a difficult time producing the evidence needed to do so.

Source: Whiteout Press

British Navy jolted by Russian flotilla

The British Navy has been jolted by a Russian naval flotilla that entered the English Channel to undertake a series of exercises.

The British have described the flotilla as a “provocation”, although foreign vessels regularly pass through.

While the four ships – led by an anti-submarine vessel called the Severomorsk – are not breaking any rules, naval sources told The Telegraph they were monitored and escorted through the North Sea and into the Channel by a British patrol vessel.

An MoD spokesman said on Friday: “We are aware that four Russian naval ships have passed through the Dover Strait from the North Sea into the English Channel, which all ships have the right to do under international law.

“The ships were escorted by the Royal Navy warship HMS Tyne as part of her UK maritime security role and have now left UK waters.”

The ships are expected to pass through the Channel and head south to relieve other Russian vessels in the Mediterranean.

Russia’s Northern Fleet said the flotilla had passed through the Strait of Dover and anchored in the Seine Bay off Normandy to wait off a storm.

“While it is anchored the crew are undertaking a series of exercises on how to tackle infiltrating submarine forces and are training on survival techniques in the case of flooding or fire,” the fleet said in a statement, according to the state-run news agency, RIA Novosti.

The flotilla, which the British press ominously described as a “convoy” and “squadron” includes the Alexander Otrakovsky, an amphibious ship, a tanker and a tug.

Earlier this week, the Northern Fleet said that the ships had left their base in the Arctic port of Severomorsk on November 20. On its way towards Britain, the squadron carried out an exercise to simulate repelling an air attack after it was circled by NATO planes, the fleet added.

 

Majority of Scots would now vote ‘yes’ to independence

Just six weeks after the referendum in which Scots rejected independence by 55 to 45 percent, a new YouGov poll for the Times has found that 52 percent now back a split from the union, as Labour sees its support in Scotland gradually diminish, RT reported.

The YouGov poll put support for the union at 48 percent. The figures will give more momentum to the pro-independence Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP), which wants to see another referendum as soon as possible.

Another vote on whether Scotland should remain in the 300-year-old union with England may be triggered in 2017 if the UK votes to leave the EU. The Scottish are much more pro-European than the English, and want to stay in the European Union.

While Scots believe the results of the last referendum have left the country divided, a separate poll for STV found that two-thirds of Scots want another referendum within a decade.

The United Kingdom consists of England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. England is home to about 85 percent of the population, but Scotland – with a small population of just under five million – is richer in natural resources and has about one-third of the UK’s land mass.

Russian planes everywhere: UK media hypes intercept

Most media reports based on the NATO statement failed to mention that the Russian planes did not cross any borders and remained within international airspace in every mentioned case

Two Royal Air Force jets reportedly threatened to shoot down a Latvian cargo plane, rushing at supersonic speeds to intercept it, after the plane failed to respond to air traffic control over Kent in Southern England and sent authorities into panic mode.

Russian planes everywhere

The excitement surrounding the intercept – apparently based on post-9/11 terrorist attack fears – came amid a heightened terror alert in the UK at the time of the allied military campaign against the Islamic State.

Media reports mirrored the panic frenzy triggered by the incident, but in a peculiar way: first saying that the cargo plane was “Russian” and then switching to a “Russian-made” reference, RT reported.

Both takes were wrong: the Antonov design bureau, the producer of An-26 planes, is a Ukrainian company founded in Soviet times, and the plane in question belonged to a Latvian-registered company, ironically called RAF-Avia.

However, the British media seemingly capitalized on the latest NATO reports of “unusual” increased activity of Russian military aircrafts over the Atlantic and the Black Sea.

NATO stated that it has intercepted four groups of Russian planes since Tuesday. “These sizeable Russian flights represent an unusual level of air activity over European airspace,” the alliance said.

Most media reports based on the NATO statement failed to mention that the Russian planes did not cross any borders and remained within international airspace in every mentioned case.

“I am instructed by Her Majesty’s Government of the United Kingdom to warn you that, if you do not respond immediately to my orders, you will be shot down,” radioed one of the jets, according to an audio recording circulating in UK media.

The incident occurred at about 5pm local time after the Latvian Antonov An-26 aircraft failed to make contact with air traffic controllers.

British Typhoons were tasked with intercepting the cargo plane. “To fulfill their quick reaction role, they were cleared to travel at supersonic speed,” an RAF spokesperson said, adding that the speed explains the loud noise people heard in the air.

Many locals took to Twitter, describing how their houses shook after the loud bangs.

Communications with the civilian pilots were restored only after the jets intercepted the plane.

The Latvian plane was then escorted to London’s Stansted Airport at around 5:20 pm “All three people who were on board have been spoken to by police,” AP quoted Essex Police spokeswoman Emma Thomas as saying. “It was established that everything was in order and the reason for the short loss of communication was due to a change in airspace.

 

British spies allowed warrantless access to US data

Newly released documents from the British government reveal a lack of judicial oversight for how it sifts through communications data collected by the NSA and other foreign governments

British authorities are capable of tapping into bulk communications data collected by other countries’ intelligence services—including the National Security Agency—without a warrant, according to secret government documents released Tuesday.

The agreement between the NSA and Britain’s spy agency, known as Government Communications Headquarters or GCHQ, potentially puts the Internet and phone data of Americans in the hands of another country without legal oversight when obtaining a warrant is “not technically feasible.”

The data, once obtained, can be kept for up to two years, according to internal policies disclosed by the British government. GCHQ was forced to reveal that it can request and receive vast quantities of raw, unanalyzed data collected from foreign governments it partners with during legal proceedings in a closed court hearing in a case brought by various international human-rights organizations, including Privacy International, Liberty U.K., and Amnesty International. The suit challenges certain aspects of GCHQ’s surveillance practices.

It is well known that the NSA and GCHQ closely share intelligence data with one another, as part of a long-standing surveillance partnership. Some details of the agencies’ spy pact were exposed by former NSA contractor Edward Snowden last year, including the existence of GCHQ’s Tempora program, which taps into fiber-optic cables to scoop up online and telephone traffic across the Web for up to 30 days.

But this is the first time the British government has disclosed that it does not require a warrant to access data collected and maintained by its American counterparts. The revelation appears to counter statements made by an oversight committee of the British Parliament in July of last year that “in each case where GCHQ sought information from the U.S., a warrant for interception, signed by a minister, was already in place.”

Source: National Journal

Whatever happened to shale gas?

In certain circumstances, no news is good news. Sometimes, though, it tells its own story, especially when it we are experiencing something akin to a news blackout on an issue which should be constantly in the public eye.

That issue is shale gas, the great white hope of the energy market which, supposedly, was going to rescue our economy with the promise of massive volumes of cheap energy. By now, we should be getting some idea of the scale of the bonanza in the UK, but there have been no public reports following early test drilling.

The most recent media report, however, might give some clue as to why we are hearing so little. This is from the South China Morning Post which tells of China’s shale gas ambition facing a “reality check”. Commercialisation of the mainland’s rich shale gas resources, the paper says, is proving difficult. Challenging geology, shortage of water near the drilling sites and high population densities are all conspiring to make drilling more expensive and less certain than predicted.

Last April, the BBC had already pre-empted the language of the South China Morning Post, proclaiming that the “shale industry faces global reality check”.

It told us that Poland was seen as the poster boy for European shale gas but, according to Stuart Elliott, managing editor at the industry information provider Platts, “the Polish experiment has been a failure to date”. Enticed by seemingly abundant reserves and a government keen to kick-start production, US energy majors moved in, hoping to replicate their domestic success on foreign shores.

Thirty to 40 wells were planned for 2013. To date, there is just one well producing enough gas to be economically viable. Earlier, we had news of companies deserting Poland. Exxon Mobil, Talisman and Marathon have all pulled out, while Chevron, Conoco Phillips and San Leon are persevering.

In the UK, alarm bells have been sounding for some time, and for some of the same reasons. Chatham House in December 2013 was telling us that knowledge of the geology of shale plays in the United Kingdom was in its infancy.

Not only are shale plays notoriously different, so too are wells on the same play, it said. Costs also change as the shale gas operations move along the learning curve. This uncertainty is compounded by the uncertainty over the externalities of environmental damage that may be associated with shale gas operations.

In March of this year, the Financial Times was also sounding less than enthusiastic, starting off by setting up John McGoldrick, chief executive of unconventional gas company Dart Energy, to say: “The shale gas potential is enormous here, even if we just get one percent of the in-place estimates”.

But just because gas is recoverable, it doesn’t mean it makes economic sense to do so, the paper said. Explorers must drill wells to discover natural gas flow rates. Cuadrilla was the only company to have fracked in the UK and no wells had been fracked since an 18-month moratorium had been lifted more than a year preciously.

Exploration is expensive and it is easy to spend more on drilling a well than the value of gas that comes out of the ground. Drilling costs are significantly higher in the UK than the US. The nascent supply chain and long licensing process were largely to blame.

“At the minute, the economic equation is negative”, said Alex Grant at investment bank Jefferies. “It’s costing [UK explorers] well over $10m to drill a well – compared to say $4m in the US – and the gas they can get out is worth a lot less than that. If this is the best they can do then the equation doesn’t work on a per well basis and it doesn’t matter that they have huge amounts of gas”, he said.

And seriously expensive it was turning out to be, with a report in April telling is that the investment needed to bring 4,000 wells into action would cost £33 billion. By then, though, Bill Powers in Forbes was “popping the shale gas bubble”. America’s shale gas resources and reserves have been grossly exaggerated and today’s level of shale gas production is unsustainable, he was saying.

In fact, he said, due the distortions of zero interest rates and other factors, an enormous shale gas bubble has developed. Like all bubbles, this one will pop sooner than expected and when it does, the aftermath will be very unpleasant.

From a standing start a dozen years ago, shale gas production had grown to account for nearly 50 percent of America’s gas production. However, the shale gas boom was rapidly maturing and it was quickly approaching a point where shale gas production was heading into decline. In fact, the majority of shale gas basins in America were already exhibiting declining production.

This had long been picked up by industry sources, and even Bloomberg had been warning of it earlier in the year. Freshly fracked wells had sent US oil production soaring 39 percent since 2011, it said. That had been the steepest climb in history, and if production had continued apace, the US had been set to become the world’s biggest source of oil by 2015. The problem, though, was that the production was declining faster than expected.

The average flow from a shale well drops by about 50 percent to 75 percent in the first year, and up to 78 percent for oil, we were told by Pete Stark, senior research director at IHS Inc. “The decline rate is a potential show stopper after a while,” said Stark. “You just can’t keep up with it”.

The industry has so far been able to live with the decline curve problem because operators have been able to scratch out better initial production in wells, Stark said. “If you don’t have that improvement, then you get stuck after a while and have to drill more and more wells just to stay even”, Stark said. As depletion rates increased, an FT correspondent described the problems as “crippling”.

Exactly the same problems are being found with gas production and the New York Times has been on the case for years – with caveats.

By May this year, though, the House of Lords select committee on economic affairs was saying that exploration and appraisal was urgently needed to establish the economic potential of the UK’s shale gas and oil resource. And there lies as neutral an assessment as you can get. There are currently no official reserve estimates. The UK reserves could be anywhere from zero to substantial. And without those estimates, the commercial scale of shale gas extraction cannot be forecast.

Still the questions on the US scenario abound. “The staying power of the American shale boom is limited by natural, macroeconomic, and microeconomic factors, none of which will disappear on the strength of unconstrained enthusiasm”, said Dajahi Wiley of Oilprice in June. And in September, the situation was once again being called this decade’s version of the dotcom bubble.

Already in July, the Telegraph had been warning that the British shale industry had a very long way to go, making any investment extremely high-risk. It may be impossible to get the shale gas out of the ground economically and there had been no well tests that had proven the resources was commercially viable, this paper said. Yet, in Poland, it is estimated that about 150-300 drills will be needed to produce enough data to estimate the size of shale gas deposits.

However, even if UK shale gas reserves are zero, or the industry fails to be economically viable, it may not matter. Another potential source is coming up fast – methane hydrate, which potentially exists in such quantities that it can keep the world supplied for 1,500 years.

For sure, it would be preferable to have indigenous supplies of gas, but the prospect of the world running out of gas any time soon is looking increasingly remote. What we cannot do, though – at this stage, at least – is rely on UK-produced shale gas as a policy option. The UK shale revolution may happen, but it may not.

Source: http://eureferendum.com/

Ron Paul joins secessionists

Secessionists across the world were inspired by Scotland’s energetic attempt at independence from the United Kingdom earlier this month. Ron Paul, as it turns out, joined them.

In an essay on his eponymous institution’s website Sunday, the former U.S. congressman from Texas wrote that any supporters of freedom should cheer secessionism because it allows for smaller government—a constant mantra for the libertarian and perennial presidential candidate, who didn’t previously realize there were more than a handful of secessionist groups in the United States.

“I was real pleased with that, and a bit surprised,” Paul told National Journal. “But then, on second thought, you think, ‘Why not? Why not more?’ ”

Fringe groups calling for states and regions to secede from the U.S., such as the Second Vermont Republic and the Alaskan Independence Party, gained more publicity in the weeks leading up to the Scottish referendum. As the outsized federal government continues to encroach on individual rights, Paul said, he thinks there will be a groundswell of these movements.

“It’s something that I think is going to grow, because the failure of the federal government is going to get much worse,” he said. “When the bankruptcy evolves, and maybe some of these pension funds are confiscated, and the wars never end, and bankruptcy comes forth, people [will say], ‘Hey, we’re getting a bad deal from this. Why don’t we leave?’ ”

He added: “I think it’s inevitable people wanting to leave will be there, and the numbers will grow.”

Realistically, though, Paul said he doesn’t think any of these groups could actually succeed. Despite the founders’ own deep belief in secession—they gained America’s independence from Europe, after all—he said the Civil War set the precedent that secession would carry “very, very bad” results.

“By our history, the heavy hand of the federal government would come down,” Paul told National Journal. “They’d probably shoot ’em.”

In typical fashion, Paul argued that the principle of secession was more important than what could actually happen in reality. It’s the threat, he said, that’s important to keep the federal government in check.

“I think what is most important is we have a concrete right to secede,” Paul said. “Even if we never had any secession, or any state declare independence, we would be so much better off, because there would always be this threat. Once the threat of a state leaving was removed, it was just open-door policy for the federal government to expand itself and run roughshod out over the states because the states couldn’t do much.”

Given that his son, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., will likely run for president in 2016 with a much better chance of winning than his father ever had, the elder Paul’s willingness to share his reasonably radical views seem imprudent, if not unexpected. In an election cycle that has often equated the politics of Ron and Rand, this latest remark is sure to annoy the potential 2016-er’s supporters.

For Rand’s sake, it’s fortunate that Ron didn’t express his support for the Texas Nationalist Movement or any other secessionist groups in the U.S. Before he’d back Texan independence, he joked, “I better check out and see who’s running Austin before we decide about that.”

Source: nationaljournal.com